BTC vs Gold: The DCA Backtest

The identical plan — $100 on the first trading day of each month — run on both assets over their shared history (Sep 2014 → Aug 2026, $14,400 invested each). Every number below is computed from real daily closes; nothing is annualized away or cherry-picked.

invested in each
$14,400
144×
BTC today
$712,622
+4849%
Gold today
$41,397
+187%

Verdict on this window: $14,400 invested into BTC grew to $712,622, versus $41,397 in Gold. Different start dates shuffle this result — the rolling analysis below shows how often.

The same $100/month, side by side

Both positions month by month across the shared window: the dashed line is cash paid in ($14,400 total), the two curves are what BTC and Gold were worth along the way. Where the curves separate is where the decade's story lives.

$500k$1.0M2014201620182020202220242026BTC $713kGold $41kBTCGoldinvested

Does the winner depend on when you started?

One full-window result can mislead — maybe the winner just had a better final year. So we ran the head-to-head across EVERY possible 5-year start month in the shared history:

92%BTC beat Gold in 92% of all rolling 5-year windows (77 of 84) · median gap: +203.1 percentage points on the same $6,000 invested

Side-by-side numbers

BTCGold
Shared history fromSep 2014Sep 2014
Monthly buys144144
Total invested$14,400$14,400
Final value$712,622$41,397
Total return+4849%+187%
Best 5y window+2553%+144%
Worst 5y window+43%+7%

Data through Aug 2026, refreshed daily.

The 5,000-year hedge versus the 15-year one

This is the store-of-value debate in one chart. Since 2014, monthly buys of Bitcoin obliterated gold's return — but look at the drawdown columns: gold's worst 5-year window is a shallow dip, Bitcoin's is a crater. They are not competing on the same axis: gold hedges with low volatility and five millennia of precedent; BTC compensated its violence with growth, over a sample containing exactly one adoption cycle.

The rolling head-to-head shows Bitcoin winning most — but not all — start months, and the ones gold wins cluster around crypto winters, precisely when a hedge is supposed to work. Which is the argument many portfolios settle on: this pair is an allocation question, not an either/or, and the honest version sizes BTC by the drawdown you can survive, not the return you hope repeats.

FAQ

Is BTC or Gold better for dollar-cost averaging?

On the shared window measured here, BTC finished ahead (BTC: +4849% vs Gold: +187% on identical monthly buys). "Better" is window-dependent — the rolling head-to-head above tells you how stable that verdict was. Past performance doesn't predict the future; this page tells you what happened, not what will.

Can I just DCA into both BTC and Gold?

Yes, and if the pair is highly correlated the blend will behave like either one alone — check how similar the two curves above are before assuming a split adds diversification. Our portfolio calculator lets you backtest any weighting of the two on the same real data.

What data does this comparison use?

Real dividend- and split-adjusted daily closes for BTC and Gold, compared strictly over their shared history (Sep 2014 → Aug 2026), refreshed daily and validated for gaps and staleness. Fees, spreads and taxes are not modelled — see the methodology page.

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