Commodity DCA Calculator
Backtest historical returns or forecast future performance of dollar cost averaging into commodities.
Spot-price cost basis
Each scheduled buy converts a fixed dollar amount into ounces at that day's spot close. The dollar-weighted average reflects what you actually paid per ounce across the schedule.
- 01Prices are continuous-front-month futures spot equivalents from Yahoo Finance (GC=F for gold, SI=F for silver).
- 02Fractional ounces are allowed. ETFs like GLD and SLV provide fractional exposure in practice.
- 03No storage, insurance, or spread costs. Physical bullion typically costs 2–8% over spot to acquire and incurs ongoing storage if you don't hold it yourself.
- 04Contributions are constant in nominal USD. Commodities are often held as an inflation hedge, but the calculator does not real-adjust.
- 05Spot data is used directly. Futures contracts have roll yield (contango/backwardation) that is not modelled here.
- 01Gold and silver have generated lower long-run real returns than equities. Commodities are typically a portfolio hedge, not a core wealth-building engine.
- 02ETFs like GLD/SLV charge ~0.5% annual expense, which compounds against the headline return — not reflected in the backtest.
- 03Physical ownership has frictions (premiums, storage, insurance, theft risk) that financial backtests cannot show.
- 04Industrial commodities (oil, copper, natural gas) are subject to roll costs that can dominate the return — only precious metals are offered to keep the model honest.
Can I DCA into physical gold or just ETFs?
You can DCA into either. The backtest uses spot prices, which approximate ETF returns (minus expense ratio) better than physical bullion (which carries 2–8% premium over spot plus storage). For long-horizon DCA, a low-fee ETF like GLD or IAU is usually the simplest implementation.
Is gold a good DCA asset?
Historically, gold has matched inflation over multi-decade windows but underperformed broad equities. It earns its place in a portfolio as a hedge against currency debasement and equity drawdowns, not as a growth engine. A small DCA allocation (5–15%) is more common than a gold-only strategy.
Why is gold's CAGR lower than the S&P 500's?
Gold doesn't produce cash flows. Its return comes purely from supply, demand, and investor positioning. Stocks compound dividends and reinvested earnings on top of price gains, which is why broad equity indexes typically beat commodities over 20+ year windows.
Should I DCA into oil or natural gas?
Energy commodities have severe roll costs. A long ETF in oil futures (USO is the famous example) can lose money over multi-year periods even when spot rises, because rolling expiring contracts is expensive. This calculator now includes energy and agricultural futures — but their series are continuous front-month prices, which do NOT include the roll drag an investable ETF would suffer. Treat energy/agri backtests as price-trend analysis (more optimistic than an ETF would deliver); metals track spot far more closely.
Run the plan on a real exchange
Five exchanges where DCA — and tokenized stocks & ETFs — actually work, each with a real discount. Pick one, copy the code, trade cheaper.
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